Tokyo Swerve- Careful What You Wish For

extreme FX and interest rate volatility paints a picture of 2 very different worlds. which shall we step into? Let’s start with a question. If Japan has rock bottom risk-free rates, shouldn’t its companies command higher multiples? Shouldn’t Japan be a global hub of innovation - because low rates and structural deflation allow for investment in growth? To the first question - Japanese companies certainly do not command higher multiples. Japan’s TOPIX Index has a forward PE ratio is 12, while it has a 30-year bond yield of 1....

October 12, 2022 · 10 min · goodalexander

Postulates on Useful Financial Speech

Previously I wrote about the evolution of media and how it ends in a poorly defined digital Colosseum. Here I write in detail about how/ why that Colosseum will entail the creation of financial eSports Financial markets are unique from politics, science, or other arenas of the media because they are accompanied by Timeseries. For the most part these timeseries consist of a price which implies a value (i.e. what you’re paying the price for) and an expectation (what that price implies - relative to historical prices, relevant comparables, consensus values and so forth)....

September 20, 2022 · 15 min · goodalexander

Stepping into Phase Seven

one last musing before the descent into the digital colosseum Digital assets and the political media have wrapped around each other, a double helix of increasingly epic proportions. It has not always been like this, but a glimpse of where we are today, before discussing the portal that’s opened behind my casomputer chair that I am about to step through - Central bankers posting their thoughts on the daily to the derision of random armchair Austrian economists on the internet....

August 14, 2022 · 15 min · goodalexander

Discussion on the Study of Asset Price Movement

A 35 point summary of how I define speculation, its 6 core components and thoughts around implementation Investors are not traders. Investors focus on the capital return potential of assets, adjusted for a discount rate. Traders focus on capturing the movement of assets. An investor may trade, to swap into a more appealing capital return or asset. But a trader would rarely invest - as that would suppose capital returns made up a higher percentage of an asset’s return profile than its movement....

June 24, 2022 · 11 min · goodalexander

The Absurdity Supercycle- Being Early After the End of History

reflections on recent price action, ARK investments, Palantir, and crypto

February 20, 2022 · 13 min · goodalexander

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits gets frequently recommended to me by top performing equity managers. It’s 15 rules for evaluating growth stocks. I read it and summarized it. Summary Rote changes in revenue and earnings are less interesting than their quality and repeatability. Invest in a company with capable, honest and adaptive management entering an under penetrated market that invests its resources in such a way to give it optionality into new spaces....

April 20, 2018 · 6 min · goodalexander