Why am I doing what I am doing? A direct summary of all the esoteric garbage I’ve produced. Dumbing it all down I’ve written a lot on this blog. I want to dumb it down. Speak in 10th grade English. Below I’m going to talk about what I think the dominant life strategy is, and why. Basically - it’s trying to make as much money as possible, at the intersection of crypto AI and capital markets, while living in Puerto Rico....
channeling momentum, mojo, reading the universal mosaic Below I explore the idea of “the Mo” - or being in tune with the universe, in a useful way that allows you to take larger risks and do better work - but only in short bursts. Famous fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller has stated that the most fundamental job of a trader is knowing whether or not he has a “hot hand”. When you have a hot hand, you size up....
Escaping the socio-spiritual prison from the starting position of a speculator Sidepots in the Asylum When I started trading, I was in it for money and pride. My father lost a lot of money starting a hedge fund and we lost our house when I was a kid. I got into trading as some kind of redemption arc. My father is a renegade. He viewed markets as a way to escape the simulation....
A hypothetical exploration of the world we are heading towards There have been 3 major technology shifts since 2022. The market has weighted one much higher in terms of valuation - Artificial Intelligence. But a second, more subtle shift was the launch of the MetaQuest Pro and improvement of visual tracking in Virtual Reality. A third, and final tech change is the rise of ZK technology in cryptocurrency enabling highly scalable, verifiable and largely anonymous currency transactions....
the Last Samurai, Darth Vader, the world of entertainment bleeding into the world of things “There are only two industries. This has always been true….There is the industry of things, and the industry of entertainment….After people have the things they need to live, everything else is entertainment. Everything.” ― Neal Stephenson, The Diamond Age: Or, a Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer Now that I’ve spent some more time in the weeds with LLMs as applied to capital markets, I have some reflections about what the building blocks are, how things are likely to play out as well as how I’m going to position myself....
naming negative nostalgia. exploring clarity in a world with infinite RAM Naming the Culprit A single concept applies to bad investing, bad decision making, and bad feelings. The idea is living in the past. I began exploring this concept by speaking to my friend Kyla about nostalgia, and its role in Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, guys who only eat meat, luddite behavior, and economic desperation. She recorded a video about it here...
a reflection on Nietzsche, Artificial Intelligence, goldfish, and new Gods “God is dead. God remains dead. And we have killed him. How shall we comfort ourselves, the murderers of all murderers? What was the holiest and mightiest of all that the world has yet owned has bled to death under our knives: who will wipe this blood off us? Is not the greatness of this deed too great for us? Must we ourselves not become gods simply to appear worthy of it?...
Ideas expressing weakness in US equities relative to ROW this week Last Week Last week’s performance was +1.25%, unlevered had you traded this blog post on the open Monday and held til Friday Source: Last Week’s Write Up . Full breakdown at a trade level here. Download Big tech and the virus acceleration were separated from the political narrative. I think it is notable that the basket titled “Green Old Deal” was the top performer, with big up moves in Uranium stocks throughout the week....
extreme FX and interest rate volatility paints a picture of 2 very different worlds. which shall we step into? Let’s start with a question. If Japan has rock bottom risk-free rates, shouldn’t its companies command higher multiples? Shouldn’t Japan be a global hub of innovation - because low rates and structural deflation allow for investment in growth? To the first question - Japanese companies certainly do not command higher multiples. Japan’s TOPIX Index has a forward PE ratio is 12, while it has a 30-year bond yield of 1....
Previously I wrote about the evolution of media and how it ends in a poorly defined digital Colosseum. Here I write in detail about how/ why that Colosseum will entail the creation of financial eSports Financial markets are unique from politics, science, or other arenas of the media because they are accompanied by Timeseries. For the most part these timeseries consist of a price which implies a value (i.e. what you’re paying the price for) and an expectation (what that price implies - relative to historical prices, relevant comparables, consensus values and so forth)....