long-form

Ideas expressing weakness in US equities relative to ROW this week Last Week Last week’s performance was +1.25%, unlevered had you traded this blog post on the open Monday and held til Friday Source: Last Week’s Write Up . Full breakdown at a trade level here. Download Big tech and the virus acceleration were separated from the political narrative. I think it is notable that the basket titled “Green Old Deal” was the top performer, with big up moves in Uranium stocks throughout the week....

extreme FX and interest rate volatility paints a picture of 2 very different worlds. which shall we step into? Let’s start with a question. If Japan has rock bottom risk-free rates, shouldn’t its companies command higher multiples? Shouldn’t Japan be a global hub of innovation - because low rates and structural deflation allow for investment in growth? To the first question - Japanese companies certainly do not command higher multiples. Japan’s TOPIX Index has a forward PE ratio is 12, while it has a 30-year bond yield of 1....

Previously I wrote about the evolution of media and how it ends in a poorly defined digital Colosseum. Here I write in detail about how/ why that Colosseum will entail the creation of financial eSports Financial markets are unique from politics, science, or other arenas of the media because they are accompanied by Timeseries. For the most part these timeseries consist of a price which implies a value (i.e. what you’re paying the price for) and an expectation (what that price implies - relative to historical prices, relevant comparables, consensus values and so forth)....

one last musing before the descent into the digital colosseum Digital assets and the political media have wrapped around each other, a double helix of increasingly epic proportions. It has not always been like this, but a glimpse of where we are today, before discussing the portal that’s opened behind my casomputer chair that I am about to step through - Central bankers posting their thoughts on the daily to the derision of random armchair Austrian economists on the internet....

A 35 point summary of how I define speculation, its 6 core components and thoughts around implementation Investors are not traders. Investors focus on the capital return potential of assets, adjusted for a discount rate. Traders focus on capturing the movement of assets. An investor may trade, to swap into a more appealing capital return or asset. But a trader would rarely invest - as that would suppose capital returns made up a higher percentage of an asset’s return profile than its movement....

reflections on recent price action, ARK investments, Palantir, and crypto

migration crises lead to populism lead to asset confiscation leads to crypto going up

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits gets frequently recommended to me by top performing equity managers. It’s 15 rules for evaluating growth stocks. I read it and summarized it. Summary Rote changes in revenue and earnings are less interesting than their quality and repeatability. Invest in a company with capable, honest and adaptive management entering an under penetrated market that invests its resources in such a way to give it optionality into new spaces....