before i get into this – none of this is investment advice or solicitation. I am ideating about an ETF which I think could be a big idea.

One of the things I wrote about in my piece Agentic Protocols was that everyone has been getting rinsed on Utopia Trades. Here’s a visual

Data Hosting Costs

The Success of IBIT and Gold

Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF already has 70% of the assets the Gold ETF while the market cap of Bitcoin relative to Gold is 10%. Gold has outperformed 20 year treasuries by the largest margin since the 1970s and has not seen asset inflows while this has happened. Bitcoin has a decidedly dystopian branding as does Gold. We are in a rising tide for bearer assets that can flee the system.

ARKK, which is the top Utopian tech ETF has seen continuous outflows after delivering 5 year returns of -12% while the Nasdaq gained 122% over the same period.

ARKK’s largest win, TSLA - which got it a lot of marketing and assets via Elon Musk - as of today, has turned on the government. Elon - who ran DOGE - the part of the government in charge of spending stated

Elon’s Turn

Tweet, June 3

I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore.

This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it.

This is a regime shift.

I believe that I can capitalize it and am uniquely suited to do so. The demand for speculative ETFs is parabolic. In the past year, leveraged ETFs have added $40B+ of capital. There is a gambling mania as life becomes increasingly unaffordable and inflation runs hot. Robinhood equity is up 237% in the past year. HYPE is the top performing crypto asset.

So just stated in simple product market fit terms:

  • The Problem *

Right now there is no easy way to go long everyone’s brains becoming cooked by AI, productivity collapsing. Which swill cause the sovereign debt bubble to have its final leg into oblivion before governments are forced to implement Capital Controls.

  • The Solution *

The Dystopia ETF (DOOM) bets on:

  1. The collapse of fiat currency in a structured, risk managed way
  2. The rise of AI, hypergambling, distraction and predictive policing economy as a long funded by overvalued equities in an economy that cannot find good workers and where everyone is burned out
  3. Risk managed feeding frenzies that result from the desperate society that results from the above where nobody can afford to have kids
  • Why Now *

Trump is President. The Big Beautiful Bill is going to break the bank. Elon Musk is rebelling.

  • How It Works *

Multi strategy ETF fueled by AI to select all of its holdings in a rigorous ongoing basis.

  • Valuation and earnings revision fundamental overlay combined with management transcript analysis +
  • Alignment with core thematic
  • Run on all global equities and relevant cryptocurrencies as they become tradeable

Post Fiat and the DOOM ETF

I have some interesting ideas about how to integrate the Post Fiat token and the Doom ETF

  1. On Chain Indexes We have built an internal indexing tool at Post Fiat that generates encrypted indexes of tickers along with compliance/ trade write ups. Can use this to go live with the holdings in anticipation of the ETF. Can also launch Bloomberg Indices. This is a good dogfooding exercise for institutional indexing plays
  2. Brokerage Loops Local Wallet brokerage integration. It is possible in IBKR and Robinhood to identify how long you’ve owned a security (verifying details here). Via API connection could easily
  3. Info Networks Flowing through the Task Wallet information network into the holdings of the Doom ETF
  4. Partner Networks Robinhood partnership for Post Fiat airdrop to holders of the DOOM ETF on their platform (just acquired crypto exchange)
  5. Reflexive Loops Potential support to the Post Fiat token post listing or through Grayscale Trust holdings (like ARKK did with GBTC). Cash flow from exchange vehicle could also be used to tap debt markets for public entity like CEP

My general thinking is “I want my entire net worth to be in PFT so all ETF fee accrual moves in that direction”. Obviously need to talk to lawyers and want to stay on the right side of everything.

The Doom Thesis

The overall Doom Thesis is pretty simple

  1. Distraction is king The distraction economy is the primary driver of AI development. This is uncontested. Nvidia was a video games company. Alibaba sells addictive shopping. Sam Altman spent most of his career studying consumer loops. He has posted Her as an inspiration for ChatGPT.
  2. Gotta pay for data centers somehow. AI is extraordinarily expensive to develop – which means that it needs very predictable payoffs to fund itself. The most predictable payoffs that have the least regulation around their deployment are digital products. We have already seen Trump explicitly reject automation of Docks, despite the fact that Dock wage inflation is 7-8% per annum and getting worse. As Elon is no longer in Trump’s orbit, this anti tech preference will accelerate. But because he and his family are billions of dollar deep in cryptocurrency, it’s unlikely he goes heavily against digital products. Thus a confluence of capital markets and politics mean that the distraction economy is the most reliable way to pay for AI capex.
  3. LLMs!= Self Driving. Waymo, and physical AI like Tesla self driving were in place before LLMs. LLMs are structurally different consumer technologies because they mirror human engagement and emotion
  4. Personalization is a 10x. Combined with video, and generative worlds - there is a real possibility of personalized entertainment for every person. This means the most powerful video games. The most powerful pornography. The most addictive social media algorithms ever invented. This is because LLMs make it possible to render the perfect experience for every user rather than relying on statistical standards which are only roughly correct.
  5. Social personalization is another 10x Nobody is prepared for how insanely addictive these digital formats will be - because previously NPCs in video games were pre-scripted and not particularly immersive.
  6. Endless Iterations With a few tool calls (such as Web Search) combined with Memory - which allows for a person’s preferences to be perfectly catalogued - this will get even more intense – as any “repetive nature” of LLMs can easily be supplemented with some random hits to various influencers feeds
  7. Screen Time Already On the Moon Right now average screen time on Iphones is 4-5 hours, and there are hours a day of other media consumption
  8. But This is Paradigm Shift This is fundamentally distracting – but it’s not quite like an opiate addiction. An opiate addiction is all consuming. It’s all you think about during work. And therefore you cannot really work. That’s what is coming – a transition from digital weed to digital fentanyl.
  9. Behavior Is Already Huge and Growing This has already kicked off. People are already viewing Chatbots as their girlfriends and significant others. Teachers are reporting students are unable to focus – and only want to go to houses of children whose parents allow endless screen time.
  10. No GDP Flow Through. And This is Why AI has been out for years and GDP globally is being repeatedly revised downwards. At the start of the AI boom, Global GDP growth was predicted to accelerate to 10%. And yet, investment remains high because the profits of selling addictive AI products is too tintillating to advertising and media companies developing the models

The organization forecast that GDP growth in the United States will slow to nearly half its 2024 pace in the next two years, falling from 2.8% last year to just 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026

  • Time Magazine
  1. PERSONALIZED ADDICTIVE WORLD GENERATORS (PAWGs) So the base case for society is that everyone will be spending all of their time in highly addictive generative worlds.
  2. Masses Unemployable Not Mass Unemployment It’s not that everyone will be made unemployed by AI it’s that everyone will be made unemployable. We are currently seeing things like 8%+ wage growth among skilled workers in the UK - despite rumors of the “Great AI job replacement”. Top skilled workers who are able to resist the distraction economy will become rare adding to inflation.
  3. It’s over This is inevitable without massive government regulation but that will never happen under Trump, so it is basically too late.
  4. Which means the debt is cooked That means that the confluence of 120% debt to GDP and WW2 style deficit expansion will be made in the context of decelerating productivity at the same time as we run coal and nuclear power plants hot in order to fund everyones’ addictions
  5. Non AI Researchers Who Aren’t Addicts Have One Choice The people that do manage to avoid addiction from the Generative Worlds will get dragged into online / digital speculation. This is in part due to the fact that network effects from large AI companies make it virtually impossible to “make it” into the upper tier of society
  6. The Carrot is Longevity At the same time as the addiction machine is running, AI will actually make substantial progress advancing biotechnology. Billionaires will fund this heavily, as they are already bought into Bryan Johnson’s “Don’t Die” movement, which is also advocated by Ray Kurzweil and others.
  7. A Global Class of Neo Vampires The US regulatory system is unlikely to adapt to radical gene therapies. So there will be a group of individuals who are not part of AI research labs or other areas of society, and not addicted to the Generative World Slop that is created. That will nonetheless feel the need to gamble by being part of a new class - which is now fundamentally about health and the genetics of your children rather than just hedonism or traditional longevity. (read my work, the Blackprint)
  8. Powered by Deregulated Banks Vast deregulation of banks and financial markets will facilitate this. And due to the pending debt crisis the government has no choice but to ramp capital markets liquidity. Investment banks will be deregulated and there will be 05-06 style rampant speculation not just by individuals but by investment banks and trading desks. Capital requirements are already being cut.
  9. The Financial Game Is a Path Financial markets will benefit heavily from AI integration - and there will be a ‘middle upper class’ of individuals who successfully apply AI to financial markets and cryptocurrency to benefit from this vast surge in speculation. This is also to some extent structural to LLMs, which are well suited to financial applications as they do not require new data but rather repetive processing
  10. Populism and Asset Confiscation Over time it will become increasingly clear that tech is destroying society but it’s already too late to stop it. Society will nonetheless become violently populist and begin imposing wealth taxes – which will lead to global support for CBDCs that make tiered taxation possible, and make capital flight and bank runs more difficult. This populism will drive equity derating as corporate debt is senior to equity, and the 20 year US treasury market is already down 40%+ over 5 years on the back of ratings downgrades. There is not a world where the government defaults before corporations do
  11. The Trend is Already Being Confirmed People have already started buying Bitcoin and Gold in an animal spirits manner. They would not be doing this if AI was going to lead to 10% GDP growth. Most of what I’m saying is beginning to be priced into markets across the board. I anticipate this will become a global phenomenon, with the only ‘solution’ of politicians being to print money to fund social programs to keep social unrest at bay
  12. DOOM is Inevitable The DOOM ETF is therefore inevitability as an asset. As people begin to see that the dominant capital formation structure is betting on continuation of network effects and addiction loops they will have no choice but to pile in
  13. Fiat brought us DOOM. It’s time to Go Post Fiat The fees from the DOOM ETF will power the liferaft. The Post Fiat Network
  14. The Native Cryptographic AI Liferaft The Post Fiat network is extra sovereign money. That embeds AI into its membership core to ensure they do not fall subject to the generative world addiction. And powers financial institutions applying AI to their investment processes to participate in the coming financial manias
  15. Loops As DOOM goes up – fees will flow into the native PFT token, attracting more capital and intelligence into the network. This capital and intelligence will be used to enahnce analytics, expand coverage universe and improve the slippage profile of the ETF. The ETF will serve like the Bridgewater All Weather fund. A low fee alternative. Over time – more structures will be built, likely crypto native trading vaults
  16. MSTR It Eventually the fees from the DOOM ETF will be used to tap debt capital markets allowing the listing of Post Fiat Strategy Corps that arbitrage volatility in order to purchase PFT similar to how MSTR buys Bitcoin

DOOM is the inevitable result. Post Fiat is the solution, funded by the ashes of the falling empire.

Brass Tacks Implementation

Extra Sovereign Strategy Mandate

  • Coverage Universe: Gold, Silver BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, all Grayscale cryptocurrency trusts trading within 5% of NAV
  • G10FX Futures
  • mandate: long bearer assets in uptrends with appealing fundamental, attention driven and technical dynamics and short Risk On Currency crosses

Distraction Economy

  • Coverage Universe: all global equities
  • mandate: all transcripts and investor presentations of all global equities will be run through the DOOM process identified above using LLMs
  • only stocks that clearly embody the thesis can be included in the long book – for example – very likely would own TTWO on a dip and very unlikely that we’d ever own Johnson and Johnson or United Airlines
  • valuation requirements: price to sales, price to gross profit, FCF yield, eps yield, and share based comp / dilution dynamics of the long book must fall within statistical band of the hedge book. preference to buy multiple compression, positive earnings revisions and low expectations
  • EPS management: fcf/ net income/ and transcript shock response process automated via AI
  • the hedge book can be any mega cap equity with a short ETF OR any major index future

Bread And Circuses of Finance

  • Investor Acquisition Cost is measured through proprietary measures including advertising data, alternative data sources such as Google Trends, and alignment with thematic narrative trends
  • Bubble Longs follow Soros bubble framework (long at formation, or after tests). Soros Bubble framework and codified via LLMs

Portfolio Construction

  • Sovereign Strategy will be implemented to target 16 vol - and will likely use <30% of total capital
  • Distraction Economy is spot long 50% of NAV and short 50% in futures (assume 60%) of book
  • Bread and Circuses trades are unhedged – 10% of capital or flexed based on opportunity
  • holders of record of DOOM ETF qualify for Post Fiat airdrop or other reward mechanisms such as NFTs
  • Large PFT holders enjoy reduced DOOM fees

Roadmap

I think the first step here is:

  1. Assembling a clean Bloomberg Index available to professional subscribers
  2. Using the Post Fiat indexing tool to create a consumable index only availabe to Post Fiat wallet holders
  3. Building some track record and ensuring the DOOM ETF process works / with production LLM tools
  4. Media – I don’t think selling the DOOM ETF will be hard but it needs to be a high quality evisceration of the decaying empire

Final Comment

I’m building Post Fiat because I think DOOM is the base case. But right now there’s no easy way to put that on in tradfi markets. And if that can finance effective life raft building, then I will do what it takes for our community/stakeholders to head to the Post Fiat Future