Posts

going to talk a bit about some things I’ve learned about rigged markets, signal extraction and how to fit market manipulation into your overall mosaic Rule 1: understanding you’re a gremlin not a genius. if you’re reading this chances are you’re not as smart as quants so don’t try to be. I practice a very special variety of quantitative trading, called “find someone rigging a market and front-run them”. Leave other quant strategies (like stat arb, or complex machine learning alphas) to PHDs....

longer form thoughts on crypto. Lots of bearishness. I remain bullish. Why: If Trump is elected, all bets are off - SEC runs on a skeleton staff, Gensler is fired, he intervenes in the Fed to cut rates. Odds are at least 50% Trump wins. Any concern about Trump’s stance towards crypto should be dismissed by his NFT sales and appreciation galas for NFT holders (haha). Concerns about Biden admin and crypto have been de-risked....

My Investment Philosophy as Best as I can explain. dfuq do I actually do A lot of people think I’m “insane” or “on drugs”, per Twitter discourse .I want to explain what I do for a living and how it all fits together. Everything Is Rigged First - I believe the market is rigged. There isn’t a printer that goes brr. Central Banks buy assets - bonds, and sometimes ETFs. Credit instruments and equities sensitive to credit rates get influenced by the daily actions of central banks....

George Soros wrote a book more people should read, “The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The 2008 Crash and What It Means”. I’ll summarize the salient points here and apply it to what’s happening with my own interpretation. Soros thought that his “Theory of Reflexivity” was a good way to make money in markets but might not have any broader application to society. That is until 2008 when he came out of retirement to manage his own money during the Crash....

AI Good. Fiat Bad. What’s your plan, anon? What Is The Left Curve Most internet denizens know this meme by now… but, for reference It pays to keep it really simple. The Morpheus Bull A crypto bull market is arriving. It’s time to dial down the spiritual thought, the hobbies, the relationships. The meditations on what it means to be human. And focus on making money. Because the nature of money is changing....

Why am I doing what I am doing? A direct summary of all the esoteric garbage I’ve produced. Dumbing it all down I’ve written a lot on this blog. I want to dumb it down. Speak in 10th grade English. Below I’m going to talk about what I think the dominant life strategy is, and why. Basically - it’s trying to make as much money as possible, at the intersection of crypto AI and capital markets, while living in Puerto Rico....

Maybe the Optimization Bros were a little right afterall. Implementing some changes Failed Health Plans After a stretch of health excellence I made a number of changes that have taken me the wrong direction Feels Bad Man My HRV is off a cliff (89 -> 69). Deep sleep way down (1 hour 30+ -> 45 mins). Lifts and running speed going in the wrong direction (-30% across the board). Screen time way up (45 min daily average to above 2....

channeling momentum, mojo, reading the universal mosaic Below I explore the idea of “the Mo” - or being in tune with the universe, in a useful way that allows you to take larger risks and do better work - but only in short bursts. Famous fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller has stated that the most fundamental job of a trader is knowing whether or not he has a “hot hand”. When you have a hot hand, you size up....

What the Optimization Bros Have Wrong and How to Fix It Willpower and Capability Gaps Consider “screen time”. Every Sunday, Apple Users get our screen time report. And every Sunday we say, “You know, next week I’d love for that to be below 1 hour per day.” And - it’s seldom below 1 hour per day. This is one, quantified gap. I am bringing it up because many people are familiar to it and can relate to it....

a philosophy for simple folk pursuing Faustian bargains with future Intelligence All things are either addictive, or non addictive. All activities either align with your true calling or they do not. Thus - any activity can fit into 4 quadrants Addictive and not aligned with your calling. This is the worst - examples would be injection drugs Addictive and aligned with your calling. An example would be taking uppers to go faster towards your goals....