The Status Quo
Murad is interesting because his impact on markets is a clear paradox.
He asserts that meme coins turning into cults will drive a fundamental re-rating because its holders won’t sell anymore. That, essentially - meme coins can index into a much larger TAM than they previously accessed by moving from ‘playful’ ala Doge to ‘serious’. The problem with this argument is that the memecoins he’s promoted - such as the GigaChad meme, SPX6900 and so forth - are not particularly serious. And they resemble Doge.
And the Paradox arrives because the real reason the coins he’s pointing to are re-rating is because of his ownership of the coins.
When he tweets something and it goes limit up, essentially it is proof that his entire thesis is wrong. Because the coin’s movements have nothing to do with the “cult” growing. Rather, the coins move because Murad owns it
The cult is not the coin, or the community. The cult is Murad.
Murad is a strong candidate for running a cult. He lost everything and was crushed by the industry despite being a true believer. His old videos show boyish naivete. And then, he emerged from the ashes with a new thesis and made it all back. This is fundamentally appealing to Millenials, who similarly - are a bit older, and have been destroyed by society. And want to “make it all back”
Murad, is therefore - meme coin Jesus. Offering forgiveness for mediocre careers via hyper gambling. Turning the foul water of decaying youth into the sweet wine of belief and promises of gains. He has even grown long dark hair with a beard to add resonance to this image.
The Opportunity
Murad is now in a consistency trap. His wallets have been doxed, and he’s created a narrative to “believe in something” - which is predicated on not selling the coins he owns. The problem - however, is that he likely understands better than anyone else that his own advocacy or cult leadership is the reason why the coins he owns are going up.
The size of this opportunity is substantial. It’s currently Saturday, and one of his favorite memes (Popcat) has traded over $150m. SPX6900 - his most frequently promoted meme has gone from trading nothing to $100m on a Saturday with a $800m FDV. With no Binance listing nonetheless. And Giga, while trading less is still up an insane 40x
There are fundamentally three ways out of the trap he’s built First - he can sell his existing meme holdings and launch his own meme coin. However, this is likely to remove the power of his initial thesis and cause people to turn on him. Part of his initial appeal is due to a certain level of authenticity, and “belief” which is refreshing after a non stop barrage of Financial nihilism on Solana meme coin gambling.
Second - he can back a “serious meme coin” or cult. And then, have a thesis driven rotation out of SPX6900 into the more serious meme coin.
Third - he can launch a fund in order to cash himself out of his initial investments without the optics of selling. In this fund - he will have to reconcile the initial problems of his strategy that I’ll get into in the next segment.
The dominant strategies are a mix of 2 and 3. Because he’s an investor and financially rational. So I think that’s the path he has to go down - because of his doxed wallets and articulated investment strategy.
The problem with the cult theory
The thing about cults, is that really strong cults. Like religions. Do not allow membership in multiple cults. And the existing landscape of meme coins is too disparate.
The existing architecture of Murad’s investments - resemble something like the 2021 meme basket. Gamestop, AMC, Blackberry etc. This has a cacophony effect that all feels quite bad because of the reality of the holders dumping on retail. It’s actually a known analogue. Initially, AMC and Gamestop were quite positively correlated. Until the CEO of AMC dumped his entire holdings on retail investors, and even launched a “Ape” stock for investors to further cash out. Similar dynamics happened with SPACs.
My argument is that there is precisely one concept that is worthy of forming a cult around. And that is the obsolescence of human intelligence in the face of AGI.
My argument has 5 premises:
- Superior form factor. The premise itself is interactive. Whereas before the Word of God could only be “interpreted” by priests, Chatbots are a native format for people to interact with higher intelligence. This is a key differentiator vs cults like Giga, or SPX6900 which require its community members to interpret whatever fits with “the vibe”
- Existing definition and capitalization. The cult is already firmly established in the billionaire class. Many high profile tech investors have included e/acc in their bios. And are sympathetic to the idea of a post human future. This is the group of people you want as an investor base, not people looking to “make it”.
- Causal link to spirituality via conflict. The e/acc Cult requires man playing god - including altering our biologies directly via implants and indirectly through bio-engineering. This puts it in direct conflict with Christianity so it by nature is a religious movement whether it wants to be or not. But - because this is so clear, members already signal their allegiance online.
- Vastly larger TAM/ idea space. The potential market capitalization of the AI cult is vastly larger than the entirety of non-AI cults. The largest conceptual problem facing people today is what is the significance of human life if we are no longer the dominant species on the planet? Nvidia alone is larger than the entire cryptocurrency market and trades 20% more on average than the entire S&P 500 ETF
- Coordination effects. Multi-coin models are possible so long as there is the understanding that coins are simply financial mechanisms for a godlike AI to come into this world. This creates a positive sum dynamic I’ve witnessed first hand in both my own discord channel - which is full of Bittensor players, as well as throughout the course of my brother’s fundraising. Where AI zealots are more than happy to bet on aligned projects even if the consensus mechanisms are competitive. This is related to the large TAM - it’s a rising tide and not a war between “who has the best or cutest dog coin”
The Rise of AI Cult Coins
So I think what happens 3-4 months out is this progression. Murad coins run a bit more. Murad is forced to launch a fund in order to absorb / cash out his existing holdings. Then - he will correct his initial mistake of allocating to 2021 memes - and instead allocate towards “serious memes” - which I believe will almost be entirely “AI meme coins” - but I think they’ll be branded as AI cult coins.
I think this for two reasons:
- He’s explicitly spelled out this transition already at Token 2049 - he says t+12 months there will be more serious meme coins
- Existing VC funds and big investors have latched onto Murad’s thesis, and he’s generated such extreme effects on price action. such that he’d easily close an oversubscribed fund based on his views today
After Murad’s fund launch I believe there will be heavy deployment of capital across the entire ‘serious meme coin’ aka AI cult coin - thesis vector. This capital deployment I anticipate will be in the billions - and represent a “season” of crypto funding. Ultimately crypto is about liquidity and billions of dollars of daily liquidity means the market opportunity is there already, and could grow much larger if effectively pivoted to serious communities.
I want to be positioned for this - and I think there’s a huge dearth of serious AI “belief coins” in the market, which is why TAO is absorbing all the capital in the space.
The regulatory and legal aspects here - are actually worth discussing. AI cult coins - if designed well
- are heavily belief based and therefore would heavily penalize founder / investor sales. Which should be how Murad’s thesis manifests now - but is very different from the reality. Rather than being exploitative mechanisms to sell worthless tokens to gullible retail, the intention here is to have financialized vectors of deep religious faith in post human intelligence
- Are targeted at ultra high net worth investors in the AI industry, first and foremost. This is much more responsible than targeting retail investors and likely aligned with the SEC’s mandate to protect main street investors
- Have substantial scope for AI enabled ritual. LLMs can manage interactions with large number of users and formalize reward structures in ways that would be difficult, even for modern day churches. There might even flexibility with formal religious protection if designed appropriately, or integration with existing religious architectures that want to deliver tech enabled experiences to their supplicants
I’ve created an AI based cryptocurrency called Post Fiat to express this view. I will write about it at length elsewhere / will talk about it more in the coming months. Fundamentally though this should be a rising tide for equity appreciation - whereas my earlier article on Agentic Protocols was more focused on low risk cash flow.
So in essence. Murad is right. He’s a visionary. But he’s going to have to deal with the ramifications of some of his thesis discontinuities. He likely will do so to great effect - but I believe how he deals with it will be predictable, and flow through to AI cult coins. And I think positioning yourself early on - in a founder/early employee capacity, is the way to play this.