A 35 point summary of how I define speculation, its 6 core components and thoughts around implementation Investors are not traders. Investors focus on the capital return potential of assets, adjusted for a discount rate. Traders focus on capturing the movement of assets. An investor may trade, to swap into a more appealing capital return or asset. But a trader would rarely invest - as that would suppose capital returns made up a higher percentage of an asset’s return profile than its movement....

reflections on recent price action, ARK investments, Palantir, and crypto

migration crises lead to populism lead to asset confiscation leads to crypto going up

Another day in the trenches Trades Going to load up on Snapchat. Capitulation on Baltic Dry index combined with monster guidance out of Macys makes me sympathetic to supply chain issues highlighted on their quarter being fixed Capitulation move in Turkish equities makes me favor a long Japan position hedged with EM debt. The risk premium should be compelling. Taking down some of the oil risk with a GBPCAD short as European problems/ destabilization / weak hand in brexit negotiatinos make that appealing General Summary Numbers out of Baba and Baidu make it look like China is actually going into a recession....

Thoughts

Responding to China data etc etc Trades I like owning EM today on the other side of some dow futures. Boeing not going to lift Dow again today, if anything we’re going to have dovish surprises and overnight move in China feels like it derisks EM into year end and could see ppl chasing it. I like that Dow doesn’t have Tesla in it / could see it being lagard / pain trade on other side of financials (remember Brainard likes the idea of forcing banks to cut divs) Also like owning fixed income futures (namely 5 years)....

Thinking about best risk reward opportunities General Market Take The week got started out with god awful Japanese data, and the drumbeat of war in eastern Europe. Given absurd dovishness of Central Banks and the fact Lagarde will be speaking all weak (she is going to be dovish) - it’s going to be hard to see the rate hike narrative last in spite of extreme inflation. This is obviously an explosive combination given the fact inflation is likely to be well above the 5% target throughout much of 2022, a clear legal violation of the Fed’s mandate....

Here I detail some analysis of newsflow over the last week and where I see best risk reward going into the start of the year Analysis / Thought The core theme coming out of the gate of the New Year is a parabolic move higher in Bitcoin on the backdrop of VanEck getting a Bitcoin ETF. This moves the Zeitgeist into one of “fiat debasement” - where, essentially large institutions believed that Central Banks have jumped the shark with their talks of “Debt as Wealth”, MMT, and so forth....

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits gets frequently recommended to me by top performing equity managers. It’s 15 rules for evaluating growth stocks. I read it and summarized it. Summary Rote changes in revenue and earnings are less interesting than their quality and repeatability. Invest in a company with capable, honest and adaptive management entering an under penetrated market that invests its resources in such a way to give it optionality into new spaces....