{ "as_of_date": "2026-08-04", "components": [ { "component_id": "fiscal-constraint", "component_score": 64.63441587299789, "coverage_pct": 100.0, "title": "Fiscal constraint", "weight": 20.0, "weighted_contribution": 12.92688317459958 }, { "component_id": "productivity-escape", "component_score": 80.64183667429103, "coverage_pct": 100.0, "title": "Productivity escape", "weight": 30.0, "weighted_contribution": 24.19255100228731 }, { "component_id": "distraction-economy", "component_score": 56.415753600686955, "coverage_pct": 100.0, "title": "The distraction economy", "weight": 15.0, "weighted_contribution": 8.462363040103044 }, { "component_id": "political-feasibility", "component_score": 87.04099529413217, "coverage_pct": 100.0, "title": "Political feasibility of adjustment", "weight": 15.0, "weighted_contribution": 13.056149294119825 }, { "component_id": "debasement-repression", "component_score": 17.281521129652518, "coverage_pct": 100.0, "title": "Debasement and financial repression", "weight": 10.0, "weighted_contribution": 1.7281521129652517 }, { "component_id": "institutional-control", "component_score": 74.5598634844536, "coverage_pct": 100.0, "title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy", "weight": 10.0, "weighted_contribution": 7.455986348445361 } ], "coverage_pct": 100.0, "generated_at": "2026-08-04T20:09:00.162662+00:00", "indicators": [ { "as_of": "2025-09-30", "component_id": "fiscal-constraint", "component_title": "Fiscal constraint", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2027-12-31", "high_threshold": 150, "indicator_id": "gross_debt_pct_gdp", "indicator_score": 68.32988888888889, "label": "Gross federal debt / GDP", "low_threshold": 60, "note": "", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 121.4969, "source": "OMB/FRED GFDGDPA188S", "total_index_weight": 5.0, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 25.0 }, { "as_of": "2025-09-30", "component_id": "fiscal-constraint", "component_title": "Fiscal constraint", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2027-12-31", "high_threshold": 8, "indicator_id": "deficit_pct_gdp", "indicator_score": 57.052, "label": "Unified deficit / GDP", "low_threshold": 3, "note": "", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 5.8526, "source": "OMB/FRED FYFSDFYGDP; 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excludes known score-70+ distraction businesses, Financial Services, and Utilities.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 7.887157812922791, "source": "Sharadar ARQ and GLM 5.2 distraction taxonomy", "total_index_weight": 3.0, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 10.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-08-04", "component_id": "productivity-escape", "component_title": "Productivity escape", "direction": "decreasing", "fresh_until": "2026-12-02", "high_threshold": 8, "indicator_id": "real_business_ex_distraction_real_revenue_growth_yoy_pct", "indicator_score": 75.07382006471072, "label": "Real-business real revenue growth ex distraction", "low_threshold": 0, "note": "GDP-deflator-adjusted aggregate revenue growth; current-vintage GDPDEF, mix, M&A, entry, and cyclicality prevent a standalone causal productivity interpretation.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 1.9940943948231429, "source": "Sharadar ARQ, GLM 5.2 distraction taxonomy, and FRED GDPDEF", "total_index_weight": 3.0, "unit": "% real YoY", "within_component_weight": 10.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-03-31", "component_id": "productivity-escape", "component_title": "Productivity escape", "direction": "decreasing", "fresh_until": "2027-03-31", "high_threshold": 50, "indicator_id": "productivity_escape_probability_pct", "indicator_score": 95.0, "label": "Research probability of five-year productivity at or above 5%", "low_threshold": 0, "note": "Research ensemble, not a calibrated probability; its AI tail depends on disclosed scenario priors.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 2.5, "source": "Philadelphia Fed SPF PROD10, CBO, BLS/FRED OPHNFB, disclosed AI scenarios", "total_index_weight": 4.5, "unit": "% probability", "within_component_weight": 15.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-07-31", "component_id": "distraction-economy", "component_title": "The distraction economy", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2026-08-10", "high_threshold": 175, "indicator_id": "distraction_to_industrials_marketcap_pct", "indicator_score": 71.39867192134687, "label": "Distraction market cap / Industrials market cap", "low_threshold": 25, "note": "The 2026 classification is applied retrospectively; this is not a point-in-time membership backtest.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 132.0980078820203, "source": "Sharadar DAILY and GLM 5.2 taxonomy", "total_index_weight": 5.25, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 35.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-07-31", "component_id": "distraction-economy", "component_title": "The distraction economy", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2026-11-28", "high_threshold": 175, "indicator_id": "distraction_to_industrials_fcf_pct", "indicator_score": 65.77542918758584, "label": "Distraction rolling-four-quarter FCF / Industrials FCF", "low_threshold": 25, "note": "", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 123.66314378137876, "source": "Sharadar ARQ and GLM 5.2 taxonomy", "total_index_weight": 3.75, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 25.0 }, { "as_of": "2025-12-31", "component_id": "distraction-economy", "component_title": "The distraction economy", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2027-06-30", "high_threshold": 7.358974359, "indicator_id": "digital_leisure_to_socializing_ratio", "indicator_score": 51.351676077809785, "label": "Measured digital leisure / socializing time", "low_threshold": 3.6794871795, "note": "BLS primary-activity proxy; concurrent phone/media use is omitted and the transform is descriptive, not a causal productivity estimate.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 5.56896551724138, "source": "BLS American Time Use Survey Table 11A and LABSTAT", "total_index_weight": 3.0, "unit": "x", "within_component_weight": 20.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-08-01", "component_id": "distraction-economy", "component_title": "The distraction economy", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2026-08-15", "high_threshold": 3, "indicator_id": "ai_porn_to_constructive_attention_52w_ratio", "indicator_score": 42.153005464480884, "label": "AI Porn / constructive education 52-week search index", "low_threshold": 1, "note": "Scored level signal; constructive attention is the equal-weight Best Colleges and Trade School index.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 1.8430601092896177, "source": "DataForSEO Google Trends worldwide grouped query; AI Porn versus equal-weight Best Colleges and Trade School", "total_index_weight": 1.5, "unit": "x", "within_component_weight": 10.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-08-01", "component_id": "distraction-economy", "component_title": "The distraction economy", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2026-08-15", "high_threshold": 50, "indicator_id": "ai_porn_minus_constructive_attention_growth_pp", "indicator_score": 4.967253693090505, "label": "AI Porn minus constructive education 12-week YoY growth", "low_threshold": -50, "note": "Scored momentum signal comparing trailing-12-week YoY growth rates.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": -45.032746306909495, "source": "DataForSEO Google Trends worldwide grouped query; trailing-12-week YoY growth differential", "total_index_weight": 1.5, "unit": "percentage points", "within_component_weight": 10.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-08-04", "component_id": "political-feasibility", "component_title": "Political feasibility of adjustment", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2027-06-30", "high_threshold": 10, "indicator_id": "required_adjustment_pct_gdp", "indicator_score": 81.46007223023541, "label": "Required recurring adjustment / GDP", "low_threshold": 1, "note": "", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 8.331406500721187, "source": "Doom fiscal sustainability model", "total_index_weight": 3.75, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 25.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-08-04", "component_id": "political-feasibility", "component_title": "Political feasibility of adjustment", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2027-06-30", "high_threshold": 50, "indicator_id": "required_receipts_increase_pct", "indicator_score": 94.43724227962664, "label": "Tax-only increase over current receipts", "low_threshold": 5, "note": "", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 47.49675902583199, "source": "Doom fiscal sustainability model", "total_index_weight": 3.75, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 25.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-08-04", "component_id": "political-feasibility", "component_title": "Political feasibility of adjustment", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2027-06-30", "high_threshold": 5, "indicator_id": "projected_deficit_above_target_pct_gdp", "indicator_score": 74.0, "label": "2036 projected deficit above prudent target", "low_threshold": 0, "note": "", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 3.7, "source": "CBO Budget and Economic Outlook", "total_index_weight": 3.75, "unit": "percentage points", "within_component_weight": 25.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-08-04", "component_id": "political-feasibility", "component_title": "Political feasibility of adjustment", "direction": "decreasing", "fresh_until": "2026-11-04", "high_threshold": 100, "indicator_id": "direct_adjustment_passage_probability_pct", "indicator_score": 98.26666666666667, "label": "Modeled probability of timely sufficient fiscal package", "low_threshold": 0, "note": "Structured empirical base-rate model, not an exchange price. Display with the published low/base/high sensitivity; adjacent outcome contracts remain diagnostics only.", "quality_flag": "modeled", "raw_value": 1.7333333333333336, "source": "Disclosed US enactment / IMF adjustment-scale / Gallup acceptance model; prediction markets are diagnostic", "total_index_weight": 3.75, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 25.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-08-04", "component_id": "political-feasibility", "component_title": "Political feasibility of adjustment", "direction": "decreasing", "fresh_until": "2027-12-31", "high_threshold": 8.3314, "indicator_id": "largest_recent_enacted_adjustment_pct_gdp", "indicator_score": 95.55925837344799, "label": "Largest recent enacted annualized adjustment / GDP", "low_threshold": 1, "note": "Diagnostic only: ex-ante budget-window scores are annualized and divided by enactment-year GDP; this is not a permanent or realized primary-balance change.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 1.3255685316090338, "source": "CBO ex-ante scores for selected major enactments since 2011; diagnostic only", "total_index_weight": 0.0, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 0.0 }, { "as_of": "2025", "component_id": "political-feasibility", "component_title": "Political feasibility of adjustment", "direction": "decreasing", "fresh_until": "2027-12-31", "high_threshold": 75, "indicator_id": "support_entitlement_cost_changes_pct", "indicator_score": 72.0, "label": "Support for significant Social Security/Medicare cost changes", "low_threshold": 25, "note": "Diagnostic only: support for one separately worded policy option is not support for the combined prudent package.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 39.0, "source": "Gallup Federal Budget Deficit historical trend; diagnostic only", "total_index_weight": 0.0, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 0.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-08-04", "component_id": "political-feasibility", "component_title": "Political feasibility of adjustment", "direction": "decreasing", "fresh_until": "2026-10-20", "high_threshold": 100, "indicator_id": "market_probability_deficit_below_5_pct_fy2026", "indicator_score": 90.0, "label": "Market probability FY2026 deficit/GDP is below 5%", "low_threshold": 0, "note": "Diagnostic only: one-year deficit/GDP outcome, not passage of a recurring prudent-course package; midpoint is sensitive to spread and liquidity.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 10.0, "source": "Kalshi KXDEFGDP public API; one-year fiscal-outcome diagnostic, not package-passage probability", "total_index_weight": 0.0, "unit": "% probability", "within_component_weight": 0.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-08-03", "component_id": "debasement-repression", "component_title": "Debasement and financial repression", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": null, "high_threshold": 3.5, "indicator_id": "ten_year_breakeven_pct", "indicator_score": 1.6000000000000014, "label": "10-year breakeven inflation", "low_threshold": 2.25, "note": "", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 2.27, "source": "FRED T10YIE", "total_index_weight": 1.5, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 15.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-08-03", "component_id": "debasement-repression", "component_title": "Debasement and financial repression", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": null, "high_threshold": 3.25, "indicator_id": "five_year_five_year_forward_inflation_pct", "indicator_score": 6.000000000000005, "label": "5y5y forward inflation", "low_threshold": 2.25, "note": "", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 2.31, "source": "FRED T5YIFR", "total_index_weight": 1.5, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 15.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-07-31", "component_id": "debasement-repression", "component_title": "Debasement and financial repression", "direction": "decreasing", "fresh_until": null, "high_threshold": 2.5, "indicator_id": "ten_year_real_yield_pct", "indicator_score": 0.8571428571428612, "label": "10-year real yield", "low_threshold": -1, "note": "", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 2.47, "source": "FRED DFII10", "total_index_weight": 1.5, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 15.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-07-31", "component_id": "debasement-repression", "component_title": "Debasement and financial repression", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": null, "high_threshold": 2, "indicator_id": "ten_year_term_premium_pct", "indicator_score": 43.405, "label": "10-year term premium", "low_threshold": 0, "note": "", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 0.8681, "source": "FRED THREEFYTP10", "total_index_weight": 1.5, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 15.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-07-29", "component_id": "debasement-repression", "component_title": "Debasement and financial repression", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": null, "high_threshold": 35, "indicator_id": "fed_assets_pct_gdp", "indicator_score": 28.743593959823528, "label": "Federal Reserve assets / GDP", "low_threshold": 15, "note": "", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 20.748718791964706, "source": "FRED WALCL and GDP", "total_index_weight": 1.5, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 15.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-06-01", "component_id": "debasement-repression", "component_title": "Debasement and financial repression", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": null, "high_threshold": 100, "indicator_id": "m2_pct_gdp", "indicator_score": 28.25288889586858, "label": "M2 / GDP", "low_threshold": 60, "note": "", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 71.30115555834743, "source": "FRED M2SL and GDP", "total_index_weight": 1.5, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 15.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-08-04", "component_id": "debasement-repression", "component_title": "Debasement and financial repression", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": null, "high_threshold": 180, "indicator_id": "move_index", "indicator_score": 9.527272727272731, "label": "Treasury rate volatility", "low_threshold": 70, "note": "", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 80.48, "source": "Bloomberg MOVE Index", "total_index_weight": 1.0, "unit": "index", "within_component_weight": 10.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-01-01", "component_id": "debasement-repression", "component_title": "Debasement and financial repression", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2027-06-30", "high_threshold": 30, "indicator_id": "fed_share_market_facing_debt_pct", "indicator_score": 39.15995105791459, "label": "Federal Reserve share of market-facing federal debt", "low_threshold": 5, "note": "Diagnostic only: Federal Reserve ownership is neither compelled private ownership nor proof of capital controls.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 14.789987764478647, "source": "Treasury Bulletin via FRED FDHBFRBN and FDHBPIN; diagnostic only", "total_index_weight": 0.0, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 0.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-08-04", "component_id": "debasement-repression", "component_title": "Debasement and financial repression", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2026-09-30", "high_threshold": 1, "indicator_id": "observed_financial_repression_flag", "indicator_score": 0.0, "label": "Narrow observed financial-repression flag", "low_threshold": 0, "note": "Diagnostic only: true requires a negative ex-ante 10-year real yield plus a binding broad holding or exit control.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 0.0, "source": "10-year real yield plus coded binding exit/holding controls; diagnostic only", "total_index_weight": 0.0, "unit": "0/1", "within_component_weight": 0.0 }, { "as_of": "2025-09-28", "component_id": "institutional-control", "component_title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy", "direction": "decreasing", "fresh_until": "2027-12-31", "high_threshold": 60, "indicator_id": "federal_government_trust_pct", "indicator_score": 95.55555555555556, "label": "Trust in federal government", "low_threshold": 15, "note": "", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 17.0, "source": "Pew public trust series", "total_index_weight": 2.5, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 25.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-07-01", "component_id": "institutional-control", "component_title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy", "direction": "decreasing", "fresh_until": "2027-12-31", "high_threshold": 60, "indicator_id": "core_institution_confidence_pct", "indicator_score": 94.6938775510204, "label": "Confidence in 14 core institutions", "low_threshold": 25, "note": "", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 26.857142857142858, "source": "Gallup confidence in institutions", "total_index_weight": 2.5, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 25.0 }, { "as_of": "2022-07-01", "component_id": "institutional-control", "component_title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy", "direction": "decreasing", "fresh_until": "2027-12-31", "high_threshold": 95, "indicator_id": "voluntary_tax_compliance_pct", "indicator_score": 66.66666666666666, "label": "Voluntary tax compliance", "low_threshold": 80, "note": "Latest IRS tax-gap vintage refers to tax year 2022.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 85.0, "source": "IRS tax gap", "total_index_weight": 2.5, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 25.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-04-27", "component_id": "institutional-control", "component_title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2027-06-30", "high_threshold": 5, "indicator_id": "improper_payments_pct_outlays", "indicator_score": 41.32335416457178, "label": "Government-wide improper payments / outlays", "low_threshold": 1, "note": "Improper payments are not a fraud estimate.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 2.652934166582871, "source": "GAO and OMB/FRED outlays", "total_index_weight": 2.5, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 25.0 }, { "as_of": "2025", "component_id": "institutional-control", "component_title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy", "direction": "decreasing", "fresh_until": "2027-06-30", "high_threshold": 0.85, "indicator_id": "liberal_democracy_index", "indicator_score": 79.71428571428572, "label": "V-Dem liberal democracy index", "low_threshold": 0.5, "note": "Diagnostic only: expert-coded latent estimate; V-Dem vintages can revise history and overlap with Freedom House.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 0.571, "source": "V-Dem v16 via Our World in Data; diagnostic only", "total_index_weight": 0.0, "unit": "0\u20131", "within_component_weight": 0.0 }, { "as_of": "2025", "component_id": "institutional-control", "component_title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy", "direction": "decreasing", "fresh_until": "2027-06-30", "high_threshold": 100, "indicator_id": "freedom_house_score", "indicator_score": 47.5, "label": "Freedom House U.S. freedom score", "low_threshold": 60, "note": "Diagnostic only: overlaps conceptually with V-Dem and is not an independent probability estimate.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 81.0, "source": "Freedom House 2026 via Our World in Data; diagnostic only", "total_index_weight": 0.0, "unit": "0\u2013100", "within_component_weight": 0.0 }, { "as_of": "2025", "component_id": "institutional-control", "component_title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2027-06-30", "high_threshold": 0.3, "indicator_id": "executive_centralization_index", "indicator_score": 41.199999999999996, "label": "V-Dem executive centralization index", "low_threshold": 0.05, "note": "Diagnostic only: V-Dem expert-coded central estimate, not a direct measure of coercive acts.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 0.153, "source": "V-Dem v16 via Our World in Data; diagnostic only", "total_index_weight": 0.0, "unit": "0\u20131", "within_component_weight": 0.0 }, { "as_of": "2025", "component_id": "institutional-control", "component_title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy", "direction": "decreasing", "fresh_until": "2027-06-30", "high_threshold": 1, "indicator_id": "physical_integrity_rights_index", "indicator_score": 52.749999999999986, "label": "V-Dem physical-integrity rights index", "low_threshold": 0.6, "note": "Diagnostic only: expert-coded freedom from government torture and political killings; not a count of protest violence or all political violence.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 0.789, "source": "V-Dem v16 via Our World in Data; freedom from government torture and political killings, diagnostic only", "total_index_weight": 0.0, "unit": "0\u20131", "within_component_weight": 0.0 }, { "as_of": "2025", "component_id": "institutional-control", "component_title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2027-03-31", "high_threshold": 7, "indicator_id": "fca_settlements_judgments_usd_billions", "indicator_score": 98.40137522857142, "label": "DOJ False Claims Act settlements and judgments", "low_threshold": 0, "note": "Diagnostic only: enforcement output depends on capacity, case mix, timing, and damages and is not an estimate of fraud prevalence.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 6.888096266, "source": "DOJ Civil Division; enforcement-output diagnostic only, not fraud prevalence", "total_index_weight": 0.0, "unit": "$B", "within_component_weight": 0.0 }, { "as_of": "2025", "component_id": "institutional-control", "component_title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2027-06-30", "high_threshold": 6000, "indicator_id": "listed_expatriates_latest_complete_year", "indicator_score": 79.8, "label": "Federal Register listed expatriates, latest complete year", "low_threshold": 500, "note": "Diagnostic only: Section 6039G list is not total emigration; current partial year is excluded.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 4889.0, "source": "Federal Register/IRS Section 6039G lists; narrow exit diagnostic only", "total_index_weight": 0.0, "unit": "people", "within_component_weight": 0.0 }, { "as_of": "2025", "component_id": "institutional-control", "component_title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2027-06-30", "high_threshold": 8, "indicator_id": "resident_foreign_asset_acquisition_pct_gdp", "indicator_score": 66.23540545403638, "label": "U.S. resident foreign-asset acquisition / GDP", "low_threshold": 0, "note": "Diagnostic only: resident foreign-asset acquisition includes ordinary investment and is not identified capital flight.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 5.29883243632291, "source": "BEA/FRED IEAAA and GDP; broad financial-flow diagnostic, not identified capital flight", "total_index_weight": 0.0, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 0.0 }, { "as_of": "2025", "component_id": "institutional-control", "component_title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2027-06-30", "high_threshold": 5000, "indicator_id": "court_authorized_intercepts", "indicator_score": 6.714285714285714, "label": "Court-authorized intercept applications", "low_threshold": 1500, "note": "Diagnostic only: narrow Title III court-authorized intercept series; excludes national-security, warrantless, ordinary-warrant, and many local surveillance systems.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 1735.0, "source": "Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts Wiretap Table 7; narrow surveillance diagnostic only", "total_index_weight": 0.0, "unit": "applications", "within_component_weight": 0.0 }, { "as_of": "2026-08-04", "component_id": "institutional-control", "component_title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2027-02-28", "high_threshold": 20000, "indicator_id": "documented_local_surveillance_records", "indicator_score": 67.13333333333334, "label": "EFF Atlas documented local surveillance records", "low_threshold": 5000, "note": "Diagnostic current cross-section only: EFF Atlas records are documented agency/technology observations, not devices, people surveilled, spending, or a deployment time series.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 15070.0, "source": "EFF Atlas of Surveillance; current cross-section, not a deployment time series", "total_index_weight": 0.0, "unit": "records", "within_component_weight": 0.0 }, { "as_of": "2025", "component_id": "institutional-control", "component_title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2027-06-30", "high_threshold": 50000, "indicator_id": "protest_event_count_latest_complete_year", "indicator_score": 72.88, "label": "Reported U.S. political crowd events", "low_threshold": 10000, "note": "Diagnostic only: a political crowd is civic participation as well as a possible stress signal; event count alone is not unrest severity.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 39152.0, "source": "Harvard/UConn Crowd Counting Consortium; civic-participation/stress diagnostic, not violence", "total_index_weight": 0.0, "unit": "events", "within_component_weight": 0.0 }, { "as_of": "2025", "component_id": "institutional-control", "component_title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy", "direction": "increasing", "fresh_until": "2027-06-30", "high_threshold": 5, "indicator_id": "protest_serious_harm_or_damage_share_pct", "indicator_score": 6.947282386595832, "label": "Protest events with reported serious harm or property damage", "low_threshold": 0, "note": "Diagnostic only: reports any participant/police injury, casualty, or property damage without assigning cause or severity; arrests are excluded.", "quality_flag": "current", "raw_value": 0.3473641193297916, "source": "Harvard/UConn Crowd Counting Consortium; arrests excluded, cause and severity not assigned", "total_index_weight": 0.0, "unit": "%", "within_component_weight": 0.0 } ], "methodology": { "aggregation": "Available indicators are reweighted within component; component weights remain fixed; coverage and missing-input bounds are separate.", "probability_warning": "The research score is not a calibrated probability that the Doom regime occurs.", "transform": "Fixed, disclosed linear thresholds clipped to 0-100; high always means more evidence for Doom." }, "missing_input_sensitivity": { "interpretation": "Bounds assign every missing or stale indicator either 0 or 100 without reweighting.", "lower": 67.82208497252037, "upper": 67.82208497252037 }, "published_probability": null, "research_score": 67.82208497252037, "status": "research_evidence_score_not_probability", "stop_status": { "operational": false, "productivity_override_probability_pct": 2.5, "productivity_override_triggered": false, "reason": "The research override is now reproducible, but historical point-in-time calibration and strategy execution conventions are incomplete.", "threshold": 20, "triggered": false }, "uncapped_research_score": 67.82208497252037, "version": "1.1.0" }