{
  "version": "1.1.0",
  "score_type": "research_evidence_score",
  "calibration": "fixed economic thresholds; not a regime probability",
  "missing_rule": "Current observations and explicitly modeled inputs receive a score; modeled inputs retain a visible quality flag and sensitivity. Missing or stale indicators do not receive a score. Available indicators are reweighted within a component and coverage is published separately.",
  "components": [
    {
      "id": "fiscal-constraint",
      "title": "Fiscal constraint",
      "weight": 20,
      "indicators": [
        {"id": "gross_debt_pct_gdp", "label": "Gross federal debt / GDP", "weight": 25, "unit": "%", "low": 60, "high": 150, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "annual", "source": "OMB/FRED GFDGDPA188S"},
        {"id": "deficit_pct_gdp", "label": "Unified deficit / GDP", "weight": 20, "unit": "%", "low": 3, "high": 8, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "annual", "source": "OMB/FRED FYFSDFYGDP; 0 at <=3% and 100 at >=8% under the disclosed fiscal-stress convention"},
        {"id": "net_interest_pct_receipts", "label": "Federal interest / receipts", "weight": 20, "unit": "%", "low": 5, "high": 30, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "annual", "source": "OMB/FRED FYOINT and FYFR"},
        {"id": "program_gap_pct_gdp", "label": "Social Security and Medicare 75-year gap / GDP", "weight": 20, "unit": "%", "low": 100, "high": 400, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "annual vintage", "source": "SSA/CMS Trustees and Treasury Statement of Social Insurance"},
        {"id": "prudent_adjustment_pct_gdp", "label": "Recurring prudent-course adjustment / GDP", "weight": 15, "unit": "%", "low": 1, "high": 10, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "CBO/Trustees vintage", "source": "Doom fiscal sustainability model"}
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "productivity-escape",
      "title": "Productivity escape",
      "weight": 30,
      "indicators": [
        {"id": "labor_productivity_five_year_cagr_pct", "label": "Five-year labor-productivity growth", "weight": 20, "unit": "%", "low": 1, "high": 5, "direction": "decreasing", "frequency": "annual", "source": "BLS/FRED OPHNFB"},
        {"id": "labor_productivity_latest_qoq_annualized_pct", "label": "Latest quarterly labor-productivity growth", "weight": 10, "unit": "%", "low": 0, "high": 5, "direction": "decreasing", "frequency": "quarterly", "source": "BLS nonfarm business productivity"},
        {"id": "utility_real_capex_per_mwh_multiple", "label": "Real utility capex per MWh versus 2004", "weight": 20, "unit": "x", "low": 1, "high": 3, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "annual", "source": "Sharadar, EIA, CPI-U"},
        {"id": "education_spending_outcome_gap_pct_points", "label": "Real school spending growth minus NAEP outcome growth", "weight": 15, "unit": "percentage points", "low": 0, "high": 40, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "assessment vintage", "source": "Census, NCES NAEP, CPI-U"},
        {"id": "real_business_ex_distraction_fcf_margin_pct", "label": "Real-business FCF margin ex distraction", "weight": 10, "unit": "%", "low": 5, "high": 15, "direction": "decreasing", "frequency": "daily filing replay", "source": "Sharadar ARQ and GLM 5.2 distraction taxonomy"},
        {"id": "real_business_ex_distraction_real_revenue_growth_yoy_pct", "label": "Real-business real revenue growth ex distraction", "weight": 10, "unit": "% real YoY", "low": 0, "high": 8, "direction": "decreasing", "frequency": "daily filing replay", "source": "Sharadar ARQ, GLM 5.2 distraction taxonomy, and FRED GDPDEF"},
        {"id": "productivity_escape_probability_pct", "label": "Research probability of five-year productivity at or above 5%", "weight": 15, "unit": "% probability", "low": 0, "high": 50, "direction": "decreasing", "frequency": "annual forecast vintage", "source": "Philadelphia Fed SPF PROD10, CBO, BLS/FRED OPHNFB, disclosed AI scenarios"}
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "distraction-economy",
      "title": "The distraction economy",
      "weight": 15,
      "indicators": [
        {"id": "distraction_to_industrials_marketcap_pct", "label": "Distraction market cap / Industrials market cap", "weight": 35, "unit": "%", "low": 25, "high": 175, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "daily market / annual display", "source": "Sharadar DAILY and GLM 5.2 taxonomy"},
        {"id": "distraction_to_industrials_fcf_pct", "label": "Distraction rolling-four-quarter FCF / Industrials FCF", "weight": 25, "unit": "%", "low": 25, "high": 175, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "daily filing replay", "source": "Sharadar ARQ and GLM 5.2 taxonomy"},
        {"id": "digital_leisure_to_socializing_ratio", "label": "Measured digital leisure / socializing time", "weight": 20, "unit": "x", "low": 3.6794871795, "high": 7.358974359, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "annual", "source": "BLS American Time Use Survey Table 11A and LABSTAT"},
        {"id": "ai_porn_to_constructive_attention_52w_ratio", "label": "AI Porn / constructive education 52-week search index", "weight": 10, "unit": "x", "low": 1, "high": 3, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "weekly", "source": "DataForSEO Google Trends worldwide grouped query; AI Porn versus equal-weight Best Colleges and Trade School"},
        {"id": "ai_porn_minus_constructive_attention_growth_pp", "label": "AI Porn minus constructive education 12-week YoY growth", "weight": 10, "unit": "percentage points", "low": -50, "high": 50, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "weekly", "source": "DataForSEO Google Trends worldwide grouped query; trailing-12-week YoY growth differential"}
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "political-feasibility",
      "title": "Political feasibility of adjustment",
      "weight": 15,
      "indicators": [
        {"id": "required_adjustment_pct_gdp", "label": "Required recurring adjustment / GDP", "weight": 25, "unit": "%", "low": 1, "high": 10, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "CBO/Trustees vintage", "source": "Doom fiscal sustainability model"},
        {"id": "required_receipts_increase_pct", "label": "Tax-only increase over current receipts", "weight": 25, "unit": "%", "low": 5, "high": 50, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "CBO/Trustees vintage", "source": "Doom fiscal sustainability model"},
        {"id": "projected_deficit_above_target_pct_gdp", "label": "2036 projected deficit above prudent target", "weight": 25, "unit": "percentage points", "low": 0, "high": 5, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "CBO vintage", "source": "CBO Budget and Economic Outlook"},
        {"id": "direct_adjustment_passage_probability_pct", "label": "Modeled probability of timely sufficient fiscal package", "weight": 25, "unit": "%", "low": 0, "high": 100, "direction": "decreasing", "frequency": "monthly and event-driven", "source": "Disclosed US enactment / IMF adjustment-scale / Gallup acceptance model; prediction markets are diagnostic"},
        {"id": "largest_recent_enacted_adjustment_pct_gdp", "label": "Largest recent enacted annualized adjustment / GDP", "weight": 0, "unit": "%", "low": 1, "high": 8.3314, "direction": "decreasing", "frequency": "event-driven", "source": "CBO ex-ante scores for selected major enactments since 2011; diagnostic only"},
        {"id": "support_entitlement_cost_changes_pct", "label": "Support for significant Social Security/Medicare cost changes", "weight": 0, "unit": "%", "low": 25, "high": 75, "direction": "decreasing", "frequency": "poll vintage", "source": "Gallup Federal Budget Deficit historical trend; diagnostic only"}
        ,{"id": "market_probability_deficit_below_5_pct_fy2026", "label": "Market probability FY2026 deficit/GDP is below 5%", "weight": 0, "unit": "% probability", "low": 0, "high": 100, "direction": "decreasing", "frequency": "daily snapshot", "source": "Kalshi KXDEFGDP public API; one-year fiscal-outcome diagnostic, not package-passage probability"}
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "debasement-repression",
      "title": "Debasement and financial repression",
      "weight": 10,
      "indicators": [
        {"id": "ten_year_breakeven_pct", "label": "10-year breakeven inflation", "weight": 15, "unit": "%", "low": 2.25, "high": 3.5, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "daily", "source": "FRED T10YIE"},
        {"id": "five_year_five_year_forward_inflation_pct", "label": "5y5y forward inflation", "weight": 15, "unit": "%", "low": 2.25, "high": 3.25, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "daily", "source": "FRED T5YIFR"},
        {"id": "ten_year_real_yield_pct", "label": "10-year real yield", "weight": 15, "unit": "%", "low": -1, "high": 2.5, "direction": "decreasing", "frequency": "daily", "source": "FRED DFII10"},
        {"id": "ten_year_term_premium_pct", "label": "10-year term premium", "weight": 15, "unit": "%", "low": 0, "high": 2, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "daily estimate with publication lag", "source": "FRED THREEFYTP10"},
        {"id": "fed_assets_pct_gdp", "label": "Federal Reserve assets / GDP", "weight": 15, "unit": "%", "low": 15, "high": 35, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "weekly/quarterly", "source": "FRED WALCL and GDP"},
        {"id": "m2_pct_gdp", "label": "M2 / GDP", "weight": 15, "unit": "%", "low": 60, "high": 100, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "monthly/quarterly", "source": "FRED M2SL and GDP"},
        {"id": "move_index", "label": "Treasury rate volatility", "weight": 10, "unit": "index", "low": 70, "high": 180, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "daily", "source": "Bloomberg MOVE Index"},
        {"id": "fed_share_market_facing_debt_pct", "label": "Federal Reserve share of market-facing federal debt", "weight": 0, "unit": "%", "low": 5, "high": 30, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "quarterly", "source": "Treasury Bulletin via FRED FDHBFRBN and FDHBPIN; diagnostic only"},
        {"id": "observed_financial_repression_flag", "label": "Narrow observed financial-repression flag", "weight": 0, "unit": "0/1", "low": 0, "high": 1, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "daily/event-driven", "source": "10-year real yield plus coded binding exit/holding controls; diagnostic only"}
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "institutional-control",
      "title": "Institutional and economic legitimacy",
      "weight": 10,
      "indicators": [
        {"id": "federal_government_trust_pct", "label": "Trust in federal government", "weight": 25, "unit": "%", "low": 15, "high": 60, "direction": "decreasing", "frequency": "survey vintage", "source": "Pew public trust series"},
        {"id": "core_institution_confidence_pct", "label": "Confidence in 14 core institutions", "weight": 25, "unit": "%", "low": 25, "high": 60, "direction": "decreasing", "frequency": "annual", "source": "Gallup confidence in institutions"},
        {"id": "voluntary_tax_compliance_pct", "label": "Voluntary tax compliance", "weight": 25, "unit": "%", "low": 80, "high": 95, "direction": "decreasing", "frequency": "IRS vintage", "source": "IRS tax gap"},
        {"id": "improper_payments_pct_outlays", "label": "Government-wide improper payments / outlays", "weight": 25, "unit": "%", "low": 1, "high": 5, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "annual", "source": "GAO and OMB/FRED outlays"},
        {"id": "liberal_democracy_index", "label": "V-Dem liberal democracy index", "weight": 0, "unit": "0–1", "low": 0.5, "high": 0.85, "direction": "decreasing", "frequency": "annual", "source": "V-Dem v16 via Our World in Data; diagnostic only"},
        {"id": "freedom_house_score", "label": "Freedom House U.S. freedom score", "weight": 0, "unit": "0–100", "low": 60, "high": 100, "direction": "decreasing", "frequency": "annual", "source": "Freedom House 2026 via Our World in Data; diagnostic only"},
        {"id": "executive_centralization_index", "label": "V-Dem executive centralization index", "weight": 0, "unit": "0–1", "low": 0.05, "high": 0.3, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "annual", "source": "V-Dem v16 via Our World in Data; diagnostic only"},
        {"id": "physical_integrity_rights_index", "label": "V-Dem physical-integrity rights index", "weight": 0, "unit": "0–1", "low": 0.6, "high": 1, "direction": "decreasing", "frequency": "annual", "source": "V-Dem v16 via Our World in Data; freedom from government torture and political killings, diagnostic only"},
        {"id": "fca_settlements_judgments_usd_billions", "label": "DOJ False Claims Act settlements and judgments", "weight": 0, "unit": "$B", "low": 0, "high": 7, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "annual", "source": "DOJ Civil Division; enforcement-output diagnostic only, not fraud prevalence"},
        {"id": "listed_expatriates_latest_complete_year", "label": "Federal Register listed expatriates, latest complete year", "weight": 0, "unit": "people", "low": 500, "high": 6000, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "quarterly", "source": "Federal Register/IRS Section 6039G lists; narrow exit diagnostic only"},
        {"id": "resident_foreign_asset_acquisition_pct_gdp", "label": "U.S. resident foreign-asset acquisition / GDP", "weight": 0, "unit": "%", "low": 0, "high": 8, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "annual", "source": "BEA/FRED IEAAA and GDP; broad financial-flow diagnostic, not identified capital flight"}
        ,{"id": "court_authorized_intercepts", "label": "Court-authorized intercept applications", "weight": 0, "unit": "applications", "low": 1500, "high": 5000, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "annual", "source": "Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts Wiretap Table 7; narrow surveillance diagnostic only"}
        ,{"id": "documented_local_surveillance_records", "label": "EFF Atlas documented local surveillance records", "weight": 0, "unit": "records", "low": 5000, "high": 20000, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "semiannual snapshot", "source": "EFF Atlas of Surveillance; current cross-section, not a deployment time series"}
        ,{"id": "protest_event_count_latest_complete_year", "label": "Reported U.S. political crowd events", "weight": 0, "unit": "events", "low": 10000, "high": 50000, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "monthly/annual panel", "source": "Harvard/UConn Crowd Counting Consortium; civic-participation/stress diagnostic, not violence"}
        ,{"id": "protest_serious_harm_or_damage_share_pct", "label": "Protest events with reported serious harm or property damage", "weight": 0, "unit": "%", "low": 0, "high": 5, "direction": "increasing", "frequency": "monthly/annual panel", "source": "Harvard/UConn Crowd Counting Consortium; arrests excluded, cause and severity not assigned"}
      ]
    }
  ]
}