Doom Thesis
The promises are long dated. The refinancing is not.
Gross federal debt, Social Security and Medicare shortfalls—measured against the households and companies expected to carry them.
The liability stack
Present-value estimates are stocks. Income and interest are annual flows. The ratios deliberately show how many current income-years sit beneath the obligation.
What sits behind the headline
| Liability | Total | Per household | Definition |
|---|
Cumulative public-company profit versus debt added
Trillions since 2000; earnings enter when quarterly filings become public
The income series is point-in-time and survivorship-safe: U.S. domestic common stocks enter only during their public pricing windows; delisted companies remain in history; each ARQ filing adds that quarter’s net income, and later restatements add only the revision delta. The 2026 point includes filings through July 31.
Download daily cumulative CSV ↓More obligation, per household
The relevant income benchmark is survey income—not a national-accounts aggregate divided by household count.
Total U.S. liabilities
Nominal trillions of dollars
Liability income-years
Per-household liability divided by mean after-tax income
Liabilities versus household income
| Year | Total liabilities | Per household | Mean after-tax income | Income-years | Status |
|---|
Interest versus discretionary income
Discretionary income means after-tax income left after food at home, housing, transportation, healthcare, and insurance and pensions.
of household discretionary income
Federal interest was — against an estimated — nationwide discretionary-income pool.
of the latest measured pool
Federal interest is now approximately — per household, holding the latest measured discretionary-income benchmark constant.
The average hides the distribution
The 2026 interest allocation per household is roughly half of the middle quintile’s entire measured discretionary income. This is a scale comparison, not a literal household bill.
The refinancing arrives
The projection replays Treasury’s security-level maturity schedule at the current curve and follows public-debt targets from the federal baseline.
The first number is a current cash outlay. The second converts the Social Security and Medicare present-value gaps into a level 75-year real payment at the Trustees’ 2.3% intermediate real discount rate. They answer different questions; together they show the annual economic funding burden if the promises are honored without allowing the gaps to compound.
Annual fiscal burden versus U.S. public-company net income
Each historical Social Security and Medicare present-value gap is converted using the same 2.3% real, 75-year annuity factor
| Year | Interest | Annualized gaps | Combined | Public net income | Interest / NI | Combined / NI |
|---|
Ratios are not meaningful in 2009 because aggregate public-company net income was negative. The 2026 point uses the current-curve interest model and rolling four-quarter company income.
Federal net interest versus U.S. public-company net income
Annual trillions; company income is point-in-time rolling four-quarter Sharadar data
Original principal coming due
Trillions by fiscal year; cumulative share of the starting portfolio
Interest burden, 2026–2030
| Year | Interest | Public net income | Ratio |
|---|
More capital, modest output
Physical power output, corporate cash conversion, and economy-wide output per hour expose different layers of productivity. Together they show where investment is—and is not—turning into measurable output.
Utility capital investment versus U.S. power generation
Sharadar U.S. Utilities-sector capex compared with EIA total generation across all sectors
This is a system-level capital-intensity measure, not a levelized cost of electricity. Sharadar Utilities includes gas, water, and multi-utilities; EIA generation includes independent, commercial, and industrial generators.
Aggregate free-cash-flow margin
Completed annual history through 2025; current 2026 point is rolling four quarters
Output-per-hour growth
Completed annual-average growth through 2025 and trailing five-year trend
Definitions matter
What the Doom Index includes
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What “unfunded” means
Social Security and Medicare are changing 75-year present-value projection gaps, not fixed bonds or legal invoices. They move with demographics, benefits, taxes, healthcare costs and discount rates.
What income means
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What the ratio means
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